KNOW THE SETUP IN NIFTY AND BANK NIFTY FOR AUG - 2017

Nifty up nearly 5% last month and Bank Nifty up almost 8% last month.

The Monthly data of Nifty and Bank nifty :OPEN - HIGH - LOW - CLOSE

NIFTY :                9588 - 10114 - 9543 - 10014  -    RANGE  571  POINTS

BANK NIFTY :   23240 - 25032 - 23144 - 24811 -  RANGE 1888 POINTS

EU INDEX is mixed mostly down for JULY series, but US Index is up like India.

NIFTY

Technically  Nifty Crosses  RSI(14) - 70 on Monthly data.  This is highly overbought zone and there may be some cool of month (pull back) will occur  around this point.

Option data   10000 CE -  147    and 10000 PE - 107 , So the support comes at 9900 levels and Resistance at 10150 levels.  Breaking on the range  will decided the movement for the series. Till that time take the profit at resistance and buy the index at support. 

BANK NIFTY

Technically Bank Nifty monthly RSI(14) is above 70 for the third month in the row. Trading in uncharted territory, we can't able to see the pullbacks. let us look the option data

Option data 24800 CE-31st AUG Expiry : 438 and 24800 PE- 310 , So the support comes around 24500 and Resistance around 25250 levels.

 Aug 2, RBI meeting,  If they hold the rates,  Bank nifty sell off may happen, if they reduce the rate, still sell off will come,  sell on news,  If they rise the rate, initially there will be knee jerk reaction will happen, good time to go long at that time and market will back to normal in a day or two.

PSU banks space is highly in the danger zone,  some of banks results is going to come in the next week and 2nd week of AUG,  which is not going to be good.  Keep watch all PSU Banks in the coming weeks,  SHORTING PSU BANK is my preferred strategy through PUT option.

Private banks, HDFC , Yesbank, Indusind, Kotak, literally, these banks are very strong in charts, there is no meaning to think about short in this counter.

This is overall view about Index,

Let see the weekly setup and daily setup in the coming days.

Good Luck.

PSU BANKS - DO OR DIE WEEK - 4th Aug.2017

Aug 2, RBI's monitory policy meeting,  if they hold rates, then it is high chance of market correction for PSU banks,  Private banks look they are doing business in different planet. 

As per technical views,  All PSU banks will give up the last 3 weeks gain, and can make new 52 weeks low.

I am looking to en-cash the opportunity and going to buy some puts on AUG 2 after 2.30 pm.

SBI, BOB, PNB , CANBK , FEDERAL BANK -  BANK NIFTY SHARES

UNION BANK, BANKINDIA  - MID CAP BANKS

ALBK, ANDHRABANK, SYNIDCATE, INDIAN BANK.  - SMALL CAP BANKS IN F&O

Axis bank in pvt space is not looking good.

Good Luck ...

ECONOMIC EVENT FOR THE MONTH OF AUG -2017 - INDIA

Monday, July 31, 2017
15:30	INR		Federal Fiscal Deficit (Jun)			3,733.61B
17:02	INR		Infrastructure Output (YoY) (Jun)			3.6%
Tuesday, August 1, 2017
10:30	INR		Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jul)		50.8	50.9
Wednesday, August 2, 2017
14:30	INR		Cash Reserve Ratio		4.00%	4.00%
14:30	INR		Interest Rate Decision		6.00%	6.25%
14:30	INR		Reverse REPO Rate		5.80%	6.00%
17:00	INR		M3 Money Supply			7.2%
Thursday, August 3, 2017
10:30	INR		Nikkei Services PMI (Jul)			53.1
Friday, August 4, 2017
17:00	INR		Bank Loan Growth			6.1%
17:00	INR		Deposit Growth			10.7%
17:00	INR		FX Reserves, USD			391.33B
Friday, August 11, 2017
17:00	INR		Cumulative Industrial Production (Jun)			2.30%
17:00	INR		Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)			1.7%
17:00	INR		Manufacturing Output (MoM) (Jun)			1.2%
Monday, August 14, 2017
12:00	INR		WPI Food (YoY) (Jul)			-1.25%
12:00	INR		WPI Fuel (YoY) (Jul)			5.28%
12:00	INR		WPI Inflation (YoY) (Jul)		1.60%	0.90%
12:00	INR		WPI Manufacturing Inflation (YoY) (Jul)			2.27%
17:30	INR		CPI (YoY) (Jul)			1.54%
Tuesday, August 15, 2017
All Day		Holiday	India - Independence Day
Friday, August 25, 2017
All Day		Holiday	India - Ganesh Chaturthi
Thursday, August 31, 2017
17:46	INR		GDP Quarterly (YoY) (Q1)			7.0%